Primeira Liga badgePrimeira Liga · 8 August 2026AI PICK

Guimaraes badgeGuimaraesvsArouca badgeArouca

0 - 1
Miss

Full time · 1 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
63.6%
Market said
54.1%
Edge
+9.5 pts
Best odds
1.85

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Guimaraes Win

Match Winner · best price 1.85

MediumEdge +9.5%
Our model63.6%
The market54.1%

The market underrated this by 9.5 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Strong prediction - high confidence

Every market we called

1 of 5 right

Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw)

Edge +5.5%Miss
Our model87.5%
The market82.0%
Edge
+5.5
Odds
1.22

Draw No Bet

Guimaraes (DNB)

Edge +11.9%Miss
Our model69.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
+11.9
Odds
1.75

Match Winner

Guimaraes Win

Edge +9.5%Miss
Our model63.6%
The market54.1%
Edge
+9.5
Odds
1.85

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +6.0%Miss
Our model56.5%
The market50.5%
Edge
+6.0
Odds
1.95

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: No

Edge +4.4%Correct
Our model53.6%
The market49.2%
Edge
+4.4
Odds
1.95

Correct Score

Score: 2-0

Miss
Our model13.1%
The market15.0%
Edge
-1.9
Odds
6.65

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

2-0

13.1%

3-0

12.6%

4-0

9.2%

We called 1 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.