First NL · 9 May 2026AI PICK

HNK CibaliavsSesvete

2 - 0

Full time · 3 of 5 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 73.8%
Market said: 44.4%
Edge: +29.4 pts
Best odds: 2.25

The call, locked before kick-off

Over 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.25

High confidenceEdge +29.4%

Our model73.8%

The market44.4%

The market underrated this by 29.4 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

HNK Cibalia

Attack85

Defence53

Form62

Sesvete

Attack79

Defence85

Form78

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 5 right, 1 close

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +8.1%Correct

Our model85.0%

The market76.9%

Edge: +8.1
Odds: 1.30

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +29.4%Close

Our model73.8%

The market44.4%

Edge: +29.4
Odds: 2.25

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +14.4%Miss

Our model68.5%

The market54.1%

Edge: +14.4
Odds: 1.85

Match Winner

HNK Cibalia Win

Edge +6.7%Correct

Our model56.7%

The market50.0%

Edge: +6.7
Odds: 2.00

Draw No Bet

HNK Cibalia (DNB)

Correct

Our model53.0%

The market57.1%

Edge: -4.1
Odds: 1.75

Correct Score

Score: 2-1

Edge +1.0%

Our model8.0%

The market7.0%

Edge: +1.0
Odds: 14.31

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

2-1

8.0%

2-2

7.2%

1-2

6.9%

We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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