Serie D · 10 May 2026AI PICK

IguatuvsMoto Club

3 - 1

Miss

Full time · 4 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 70.8%
Market said: 66.7%
Edge: +4.1 pts
Best odds: 1.50

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.50

High confidenceEdge +4.1%

Our model70.8%

The market66.7%

The market underrated this by 4.1 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Iguatu

Attack51

Defence82

Form56

Moto Club

Attack48

Defence67

Form46

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

4 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +8.1%Correct

Our model85.0%

The market76.9%

Edge: +8.1
Odds: 1.30

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +4.1%Miss

Our model70.8%

The market66.7%

Edge: +4.1
Odds: 1.50

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +7.3%Correct

Our model54.9%

The market47.6%

Edge: +7.3
Odds: 2.10

Draw No Bet

Iguatu (DNB)

Correct

Our model53.0%

The market57.1%

Edge: -4.1
Odds: 1.75

Match Winner

Iguatu Win

Edge +0.8%Correct

Our model50.8%

The market50.0%

Edge: +0.8
Odds: 2.00

Correct Score

Score: 1-0

Edge +1.8%

Our model13.7%

The market11.9%

Edge: +1.8
Odds: 8.37

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-0

13.7%

0-1

11.9%

1-1

11.0%

We called 4 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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