Serie D badgeSerie D · 4 July 2026AI PICK

Imperatriz badgeImperatrizvsFerroviario badgeFerroviario

1 - 1
Correct

Full time · 1 of 3 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
57.0%
Market said
50.0%
Edge
+7.0 pts
Best odds
2.00

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 2.00

MediumEdge +7.0%
Our model57.0%
The market50.0%

The market underrated this by 7.0 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Imperatriz badge

Imperatriz

Attack58
Defence55
Form48
Ferroviario badge

Ferroviario

Attack60
Defence67
Form64

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 3 right, 1 close

Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw)

Edge +0.6%
Our model66.0%
The market65.4%
Edge
+0.6
Odds
1.53

Draw No Bet

Imperatriz (DNB)

Edge +2.7%Void
Our model59.8%
The market57.1%
Edge
+2.7
Odds
1.75

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +7.0%Correct
Our model57.0%
The market50.0%
Edge
+7.0
Odds
2.00

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +11.1%Close
Our model53.1%
The market42.0%
Edge
+11.1
Odds
2.38

Match Winner

Imperatriz Win

Edge +4.1%Miss
Our model36.4%
The market32.3%
Edge
+4.1
Odds
3.10

Correct Score

Score: 2-1

Miss
Our model8.7%
The market10.0%
Edge
-1.3
Odds
10.02

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

2-1

8.7%

1-1

13.1% · actual

1-2

8.1%

We called 1 of 3 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.