Serie D badgeSerie D · 14 June 2026AI PICK

Independência badgeIndependênciavsGuaporé badgeGuaporé

2 - 2
Correct

Full time · 2 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
60.4%
Market said
59.9%
Edge
+0.5 pts
Best odds
1.67

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 1.67

MediumEdge +0.5%
Our model60.4%
The market59.9%

The market underrated this by 0.5 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Independência badge

Independência

Attack58
Defence48
Form42
Guaporé badge

Guaporé

Attack61
Defence66
Form64

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 4 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +6.9%Miss
Our model85.0%
The market78.1%
Edge
+6.9
Odds
1.28

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +0.5%Correct
Our model60.4%
The market59.9%
Edge
+0.5
Odds
1.67

Match Winner

Independência Win

Edge +18.9%Miss
Our model57.1%
The market38.2%
Edge
+18.9
Odds
2.62

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +1.1%Correct
Our model55.2%
The market54.1%
Edge
+1.1
Odds
1.85

Draw No Bet

Independência (DNB)

Void
Our model51.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-6.1
Odds
1.75

Correct Score

Score: 1-0

Edge +1.3%
Our model10.0%
The market8.7%
Edge
+1.3
Odds
11.52

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-0

10.0%

1-1

9.8%

0-1

9.4%

We called 2 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.