Copa Colombia badgeCopa Colombia · 11 May 2026AI PICK

Independiente Medellin badgeIndependiente MedellinvsFortaleza FC badgeFortaleza FC

1 - 0
Miss

Full time · 3 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
59.3%
Market said
50.0%
Edge
+9.3 pts
Best odds
2.00

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 2.00

MediumEdge +9.3%
Our model59.3%
The market50.0%

The market underrated this by 9.3 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Independiente Medellin badge

Independiente Medellin

Attack47
Defence66
Form60
Fortaleza FC badge

Fortaleza FC

Attack42
Defence45
Form36

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +3.0%Correct
Our model85.0%
The market82.0%
Edge
+3.0
Odds
1.22

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +9.3%Miss
Our model59.3%
The market50.0%
Edge
+9.3
Odds
2.00

Draw No Bet

Independiente Medellin (DNB)

Correct
Our model53.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-4.1
Odds
1.75

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +1.6%Miss
Our model52.9%
The market51.3%
Edge
+1.6
Odds
1.95

Match Winner

Independiente Medellin Win

Edge +0.2%Correct
Our model50.2%
The market50.0%
Edge
+0.2
Odds
2.00

Correct Score

Score: 1-0

Edge +1.4%
Our model10.9%
The market9.5%
Edge
+1.4
Odds
10.55

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-0

10.9% · actual

1-1

10.1%

0-1

9.7%

We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.