Primera A badgePrimera A · 9 August 2026AI PICK

Jaguares badgeJaguaresvsOnce Caldas badgeOnce Caldas

1 - 1
Close

Full time · 2 of 4 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
54.5%
Market said
46.7%
Edge
+7.8 pts
Best odds
2.14

The call, locked before kick-off

Close

Over 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.14

LowEdge +7.8%
Our model54.5%
The market46.7%

The market underrated this by 7.8 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Jaguares badge

Jaguares

Attack39
Defence45
Form29
Once Caldas badge

Once Caldas

Attack73
Defence53
Form56

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 4 right, 1 close

Double Chance

X2 (Draw or Away)

Correct
Our model72.7%
The market78.1%
Edge
-5.4
Odds
1.28

Draw No Bet

Once Caldas (DNB)

Edge +12.9%Void
Our model70.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
+12.9
Odds
1.75

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +7.8%Close
Our model54.5%
The market46.7%
Edge
+7.8
Odds
2.14

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Correct
Our model53.6%
The market54.3%
Edge
-0.7
Odds
1.84

Match Winner

Once Caldas Win

Edge +6.5%Miss
Our model51.7%
The market45.2%
Edge
+6.5
Odds
2.21

Correct Score

Score: 1-2

Miss
Our model9.9%
The market11.4%
Edge
-1.5
Odds
8.76

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-2

9.9%

1-1

11.8% · actual

0-2

9.0%

We called 2 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.