Primera División · 29 August 2026AI PICK

JuventudvsDeportivo Maldonado

2 - 0

Full time · 1 of 5 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 53.8%
Market said: 44.3%
Edge: +9.5 pts
Best odds: 2.11

The call, locked before kick-off

Over 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.11

LowEdge +9.5%

Our model53.8%

The market44.3%

The market underrated this by 9.5 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Juventud

Attack50

Defence46

Form47

Deportivo Maldonado

Attack70

Defence62

Form60

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 5 right, 1 close

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Correct

Our model72.1%

The market78.1%

Edge: -6.0
Odds: 1.28

Draw No Bet

Deportivo Maldonado (DNB)

Edge +7.1%Miss

Our model58.4%

The market51.3%

Edge: +7.1
Odds: 1.95

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +9.5%Close

Our model53.8%

The market44.3%

Edge: +9.5
Odds: 2.11

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +0.9%Miss

Our model52.5%

The market51.6%

Edge: +0.9
Odds: 1.82

Match Winner

Deportivo Maldonado Win

Edge +2.1%Miss

Our model42.1%

The market40.0%

Edge: +2.1
Odds: 2.50

Correct Score

Score: 1-2

Miss

Our model9.4%

The market10.8%

Edge: -1.4
Odds: 9.28

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-2

9.4%

1-1

12.5%

0-2

7.2%

We called 1 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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