Premier League badgePremier League · 24 May 2026AI PICK

Manchester City badgeManchester CityvsAston Villa badgeAston Villa

1 - 2
Correct

Full time · 3 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
77.8%
Market said
71.4%
Edge
+6.4 pts
Best odds
1.40

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.40

High confidenceEdge +6.4%
Our model77.8%
The market71.4%

The market underrated this by 6.4 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Manchester City badge

Manchester City

Attack73
Defence79
Form73
Aston Villa badge

Aston Villa

Attack73
Defence52
Form58

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Correct
Our model85.0%
The market85.5%
Edge
-0.5
Odds
1.17

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +6.4%Correct
Our model77.8%
The market71.4%
Edge
+6.4
Odds
1.40

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +8.7%Correct
Our model70.4%
The market61.7%
Edge
+8.7
Odds
1.62

Match Winner

Manchester City Win

Miss
Our model68.1%
The market75.2%
Edge
-7.1
Odds
1.33

Draw No Bet

Manchester City (DNB)

Miss
Our model52.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-5.1
Odds
1.75

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.