Serie D badgeSerie D · 16 May 2026AI PICK

Maracanã badgeMaracanãvsIguatu badgeIguatu

1 - 1
Correct

Full time · 2 of 2 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
69.6%
Market said
69.4%
Edge
+0.2 pts
Best odds
1.44

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.44

MediumEdge +0.2%
Our model69.6%
The market69.4%

The market underrated this by 0.2 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Maracanã badge

Maracanã

Attack39
Defence56
Form31
Iguatu badge

Iguatu

Attack58
Defence78
Form60

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 2 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +9.8%
Our model85.0%
The market75.2%
Edge
+9.8
Odds
1.33

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +0.2%Correct
Our model69.6%
The market69.4%
Edge
+0.2
Odds
1.44

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +3.0%Correct
Our model47.4%
The market44.4%
Edge
+3.0
Odds
2.25

Draw No Bet

Maracanã (DNB)

Our model45.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-12.1
Odds
1.75

Match Winner

Maracanã Win

Our model40.5%
The market47.6%
Edge
-7.1
Odds
2.10

Correct Score

Score: 0-1

Edge +2.1%Miss
Our model16.3%
The market14.2%
Edge
+2.1
Odds
7.03

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

0-1

16.3%

1-0

11.9%

1-1

11.0% · actual

We called 2 of 2 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.