World Cup · 1 July 2026AI PICK

MexicovsEcuador

2 - 0

Miss

Full time · 2 of 4 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 56.5%
Market said: 45.5%
Edge: +11.0 pts
Best odds: 2.20

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 2.20

MediumEdge +11.0%

Our model56.5%

The market45.5%

The market underrated this by 11.0 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Strong prediction - high confidence

How the two sides compared

Mexico

Attack66

Defence100

Form88

Ecuador

Attack39

Defence100

Form62

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 4 right, 1 close

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +1.5%

Our model75.0%

The market73.5%

Edge: +1.5
Odds: 1.36

Draw No Bet

Mexico (DNB)

Edge +3.6%Correct

Our model60.7%

The market57.1%

Edge: +3.6
Odds: 1.75

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +11.0%Miss

Our model56.5%

The market45.5%

Edge: +11.0
Odds: 2.20

Match Winner

Mexico Win

Correct

Our model45.5%

The market46.5%

Edge: -1.0
Odds: 2.15

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +3.6%Close

Our model40.0%

The market36.4%

Edge: +3.6
Odds: 2.75

Correct Score

Score: 1-0

Edge +1.3%

Our model10.0%

The market8.7%

Edge: +1.3
Odds: 11.53

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-0

10.0%

2-1

9.9%

2-0

9.0% · actual

We called 2 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

Get the app See the full track record