Segunda División badgeSegunda División · 5 September 2026AI PICK

Monagas II badgeMonagas IIvsAragua FC badgeAragua FC

2 - 2
Correct

Full time · 3 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
54.6%
Market said
50.8%
Edge
+3.8 pts
Best odds
1.97

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 1.97

LowEdge +3.8%
Our model54.6%
The market50.8%

The market underrated this by 3.8 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Strong prediction - high confidence

How the two sides compared

Monagas II badge

Monagas II

Attack72
Defence55
Form62
Aragua FC badge

Aragua FC

Attack37
Defence79
Form43

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 4 right

Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw)

Correct
Our model80.6%
The market81.3%
Edge
-0.7
Odds
1.23

Draw No Bet

Monagas II (DNB)

Edge +9.4%Void
Our model72.7%
The market63.3%
Edge
+9.4
Odds
1.58

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +3.8%Correct
Our model54.6%
The market50.8%
Edge
+3.8
Odds
1.97

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +8.9%Correct
Our model54.6%
The market45.7%
Edge
+8.9
Odds
2.19

Match Winner

Monagas II Win

Edge +1.8%Miss
Our model51.6%
The market49.8%
Edge
+1.8
Odds
2.01

Correct Score

Score: 2-0

Miss
Our model11.1%
The market12.7%
Edge
-1.6
Odds
7.87

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

2-0

11.1%

1-1

11.2%

2-1

9.9%

We called 3 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.