Primera División badgePrimera División · 8 August 2026AI PICK

Monagas SC badgeMonagas SCvsCarabobo FC badgeCarabobo FC

1 - 0
Miss

Full time · 1 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
56.5%
Market said
46.5%
Edge
+10.0 pts
Best odds
2.15

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Over 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.15

MediumEdge +10.0%
Our model56.5%
The market46.5%

The market underrated this by 10.0 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Monagas SC badge

Monagas SC

Attack61
Defence52
Form37
Carabobo FC badge

Carabobo FC

Attack70
Defence58
Form58

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Correct
Our model72.7%
The market75.2%
Edge
-2.5
Odds
1.33

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +10.0%Miss
Our model56.5%
The market46.5%
Edge
+10.0
Odds
2.15

Draw No Bet

Carabobo FC (DNB)

Miss
Our model55.6%
The market57.1%
Edge
-1.5
Odds
1.75

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +2.2%Miss
Our model54.6%
The market52.4%
Edge
+2.2
Odds
1.91

Match Winner

Carabobo FC Win

Miss
Our model43.3%
The market51.3%
Edge
-8.0
Odds
1.95

Correct Score

Score: 2-1

Miss
Our model8.2%
The market9.5%
Edge
-1.3
Odds
10.57

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

2-1

8.2%

1-1

10.9%

1-2

8.2%

We called 1 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.