Primeira Liga badgePrimeira Liga · 2 May 2026AI PICK

Moreirense badgeMoreirensevsEstrela badgeEstrela

3 - 2
Miss

Full time · 2 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
75.7%
Market said
60.6%
Edge
+15.1 pts
Best odds
1.65

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.65

High confidenceEdge +15.1%
Our model75.7%
The market60.6%

The market underrated this by 15.1 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Moreirense badge

Moreirense

Attack27
Defence48
Form33
Estrela badge

Estrela

Attack35
Defence37
Form22

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 4 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +11.5%
Our model85.0%
The market73.5%
Edge
+11.5
Odds
1.36

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +15.1%Miss
Our model75.7%
The market60.6%
Edge
+15.1
Odds
1.65

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: No

Edge +10.5%Miss
Our model62.9%
The market52.4%
Edge
+10.5
Odds
1.91

Match Winner

Moreirense Win

Edge +1.3%Correct
Our model51.3%
The market50.0%
Edge
+1.3
Odds
2.00

Draw No Bet

Moreirense (DNB)

Correct
Our model47.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-10.1
Odds
1.75

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

We called 2 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.