Serie D badgeSerie D · 28 June 2026AI PICK

Nacional AM badgeNacional AMvsAraguaína badgeAraguaína

0 - 0
Miss

Full time · 0 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
60.6%
Market said
47.6%
Edge
+13.0 pts
Best odds
2.10

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Over 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.10

MediumEdge +13.0%
Our model60.6%
The market47.6%

The market underrated this by 13.0 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Nacional AM badge

Nacional AM

Attack67
Defence59
Form62
Araguaína badge

Araguaína

Attack100
Defence67
Form56

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

0 of 4 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Miss
Our model75.3%
The market82.0%
Edge
-6.7
Odds
1.22

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +13.0%Miss
Our model60.6%
The market47.6%
Edge
+13.0
Odds
2.10

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +15.1%Miss
Our model57.1%
The market42.0%
Edge
+15.1
Odds
2.38

Match Winner

Nacional AM Win

Miss
Our model48.7%
The market69.4%
Edge
-20.7
Odds
1.44

Draw No Bet

Nacional AM (DNB)

Void
Our model38.7%
The market57.1%
Edge
-18.4
Odds
1.75

Correct Score

Score: 1-2

Edge +1.1%
Our model8.0%
The market6.9%
Edge
+1.1
Odds
14.44

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-2

8.0%

2-2

6.8%

1-3

6.6%

We called 0 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.