Serie D · 4 July 2026AI PICK
Nacional AMvs
Capital Brasilia
1 - 0Full time · 3 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off
- Model said
- 57.0%
- Market said
- 47.6%
- Edge
- +9.4 pts
- Best odds
- 2.10
The call, locked before kick-off
MissBoth Teams To Score: Yes
Both Teams To Score · best price 2.10
The market underrated this by 9.4 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.
What the model saw
Close match - low confidence
How the two sides compared
Nacional AM
Capital Brasilia
Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.
Every market we called
3 of 5 right
Double Chance
12 (Home or Away)
- Edge
- -3.6
- Odds
- 1.33
Draw No Bet
Nacional AM (DNB)
- Edge
- +2.7
- Odds
- 1.75
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: Yes
- Edge
- +9.4
- Odds
- 2.10
Goals Over/Under
Over 2.5 Goals
- Edge
- +13.1
- Odds
- 2.50
Match Winner
Nacional AM Win
- Edge
- -6.8
- Odds
- 2.35
Correct Score
Score: 2-1
- Edge
- -1.3
- Odds
- 10.03
Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.
Most likely scorelines
Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.
2-1
8.7%
1-1
12.2%
1-2
8.1%
We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.
Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.