Primeira Liga · 18 April 2026AI PICK
Nacionalvs
Alverca
1 - 0Full time · 4 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off
- Model said
- 59.6%
- Market said
- 51.3%
- Edge
- +8.3 pts
- Best odds
- 1.95
The call, locked before kick-off
CorrectUnder 2.5 Goals
Goals Over/Under · best price 1.95
The market underrated this by 8.3 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.
What the model saw
Moderate prediction - medium confidence
How the two sides compared
Nacional
Alverca
Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.
Every market we called
4 of 5 right
Double Chance
12 (Home or Away)
- Edge
- +8.1
- Odds
- 1.30
Goals Over/Under
Under 2.5 Goals
- Edge
- +8.3
- Odds
- 1.95
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: Yes
- Edge
- -5.0
- Odds
- 1.70
Draw No Bet
Nacional (DNB)
- Edge
- -6.1
- Odds
- 1.75
Match Winner
Nacional Win
- Edge
- -3.9
- Odds
- 2.00
Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.
We called 4 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.
Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.