Serie A badgeSerie A · 11 May 2026AI PICK

Napoli badgeNapolivsBologna badgeBologna

2 - 3
Miss

Full time · 1 of 3 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
60.5%
Market said
50.0%
Edge
+10.5 pts
Best odds
2.00

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Napoli Win

Match Winner · best price 2.00

MediumEdge +10.5%
Our model60.5%
The market50.0%

The market underrated this by 10.5 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Strong prediction - high confidence

How the two sides compared

Napoli badge

Napoli

Attack68
Defence53
Form64
Bologna badge

Bologna

Attack33
Defence50
Form48

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 3 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +5.0%
Our model85.0%
The market80.0%
Edge
+5.0
Odds
1.25

Draw No Bet

Napoli (DNB)

Edge +6.9%Miss
Our model64.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
+6.9
Odds
1.75

Match Winner

Napoli Win

Edge +10.5%Miss
Our model60.5%
The market50.0%
Edge
+10.5
Odds
2.00

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Correct
Our model49.1%
The market51.3%
Edge
-2.2
Odds
1.95

Correct Score

Score: 1-0

Edge +2.0%Miss
Our model15.0%
The market13.0%
Edge
+2.0
Odds
7.68

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-0

15.0%

2-0

12.0%

2-1

9.6%

We called 1 of 3 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.