Premier League · 4 July 2026AI PICK

NemanvsArsenal

0 - 1

Miss

Full time · 3 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 57.0%
Market said: 47.6%
Edge: +9.4 pts
Best odds: 2.02

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 2.02

MediumEdge +9.4%

Our model57.0%

The market47.6%

The market underrated this by 9.4 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Neman

Attack60

Defence62

Form51

Arsenal

Attack68

Defence48

Form53

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Correct

Our model71.6%

The market81.3%

Edge: -9.7
Odds: 1.23

Draw No Bet

Arsenal (DNB)

Edge +2.7%Correct

Our model59.8%

The market57.1%

Edge: +2.7
Odds: 1.75

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +9.4%Miss

Our model57.0%

The market47.6%

Edge: +9.4
Odds: 2.02

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +6.8%Miss

Our model55.1%

The market48.3%

Edge: +6.8
Odds: 1.99

Match Winner

Arsenal Win

Edge +19.3%Correct

Our model35.8%

The market16.5%

Edge: +19.3
Odds: 6.06

Correct Score

Score: 1-2

Our model8.6%

The market9.8%

Edge: -1.2
Odds: 10.16

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-2

8.6%

1-1

11.4%

2-1

8.1%

We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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