UEFA Europa League badgeUEFA Europa League · 30 April 2026AI PICK

Nottingham Forest badgeNottingham ForestvsAston Villa badgeAston Villa

1 - 0
Miss

Full time · 3 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
63.2%
Market said
57.1%
Edge
+6.1 pts
Best odds
1.75

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 1.75

MediumEdge +6.1%
Our model63.2%
The market57.1%

The market underrated this by 6.1 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Nottingham Forest badge

Nottingham Forest

Attack59
Defence85
Form48
Aston Villa badge

Aston Villa

Attack57
Defence50
Form53

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +11.5%Correct
Our model85.0%
The market73.5%
Edge
+11.5
Odds
1.36

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +6.1%Miss
Our model63.2%
The market57.1%
Edge
+6.1
Odds
1.75

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +11.7%Miss
Our model61.7%
The market50.0%
Edge
+11.7
Odds
2.00

Draw No Bet

Nottingham Forest (DNB)

Correct
Our model52.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-5.1
Odds
1.75

Match Winner

Nottingham Forest Win

Correct
Our model48.7%
The market50.0%
Edge
-1.3
Odds
2.00

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.