Serie D badgeSerie D · 16 May 2026AI PICK

Nova Iguaçu badgeNova IguaçuvsSampaio Corrêa RJ badgeSampaio Corrêa RJ

2 - 1
Close

Full time · 3 of 4 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off

We called
Under 2.5 Goals
Model confidence
63.2%
Markets called
3 of 4 right, 1 close
Final score
2 - 1

The call, locked before kick-off

Close

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.57

MediumEdge -0.5%
Our model63.2%
The market63.7%

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Nova Iguaçu badge

Nova Iguaçu

Attack45
Defence52
Form31
Sampaio Corrêa RJ badge

Sampaio Corrêa RJ

Attack42
Defence42
Form36

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 4 right, 1 close

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +9.8%
Our model85.0%
The market75.2%
Edge
+9.8
Odds
1.33

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Close
Our model63.2%
The market63.7%
Edge
-0.5
Odds
1.57

Draw No Bet

Nova Iguaçu (DNB)

Correct
Our model53.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-4.1
Odds
1.75

Match Winner

Nova Iguaçu Win

Edge +0.8%Correct
Our model47.3%
The market46.5%
Edge
+0.8
Odds
2.15

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Correct
Our model45.4%
The market50.0%
Edge
-4.6
Odds
2.00

Correct Score

Score: 1-0

Edge +2.2%Miss
Our model16.9%
The market14.7%
Edge
+2.2
Odds
6.81

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-0

16.9%

0-1

14.2%

0-0

11.5%

We called 3 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.