Serie D badgeSerie D · 3 May 2026AI PICK

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3 - 1
Miss

Full time · 2 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
80.9%
Market said
52.6%
Edge
+28.3 pts
Best odds
1.90

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.90

High confidenceEdge +28.3%
Our model80.9%
The market52.6%

The market underrated this by 28.3 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

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Parnahyba

Attack28
Defence39
Form21
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IAPE

Attack35
Defence65
Form44

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 4 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +13.6%
Our model85.0%
The market71.4%
Edge
+13.6
Odds
1.40

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +28.3%Miss
Our model80.9%
The market52.6%
Edge
+28.3
Odds
1.90

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: No

Edge +11.4%Miss
Our model65.5%
The market54.1%
Edge
+11.4
Odds
1.85

Match Winner

Parnahyba Win

Edge +0.2%Correct
Our model50.2%
The market50.0%
Edge
+0.2
Odds
2.00

Draw No Bet

Parnahyba (DNB)

Correct
Our model48.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-9.1
Odds
1.75

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

We called 2 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.