Primera División - Apertura · 18 July 2026AI PICK
Penarolvs
Boston River
3 - 0Full time · 4 of 5 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off
- Model said
- 55.4%
- Market said
- 51.4%
- Edge
- +4.0 pts
- Best odds
- 1.85
The call, locked before kick-off
CloseUnder 2.5 Goals
Goals Over/Under · best price 1.85
The market underrated this by 4.0 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.
What the model saw
Close match - low confidence
How the two sides compared
Penarol
Boston River
Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.
Every market we called
4 of 5 right, 1 close
Draw No Bet
Penarol (DNB)
- Edge
- -0.3
- Odds
- 1.75
Goals Over/Under
Under 2.5 Goals
- Edge
- +4.0
- Odds
- 1.85
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: No
- Edge
- -0.9
- Odds
- 1.73
Double Chance
1X (Home or Draw)
- Edge
- -33.8
- Odds
- 1.17
Match Winner
Penarol Win
- Edge
- -25.5
- Odds
- 1.53
Correct Score
Score: 1-0
- Edge
- -1.8
- Odds
- 7.42
Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.
Most likely scorelines
Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.
1-0
11.7%
1-1
15.2%
0-0
14.0%
We called 4 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.
Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.