Primera División - Apertura badgePrimera División - Apertura · 1 June 2026AI PICK

Penarol badgePenarolvsCentral Espanol badgeCentral Espanol

0 - 1
Miss

Full time · 1 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
56.1%
Market said
47.6%
Edge
+8.5 pts
Best odds
2.10

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 2.10

MediumEdge +8.5%
Our model56.1%
The market47.6%

The market underrated this by 8.5 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Penarol badge

Penarol

Attack46
Defence47
Form38
Central Espanol badge

Central Espanol

Attack54
Defence39
Form47

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 4 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +1.7%Correct
Our model85.0%
The market83.3%
Edge
+1.7
Odds
1.20

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +8.5%Miss
Our model56.1%
The market47.6%
Edge
+8.5
Odds
2.10

Match Winner

Penarol Win

Miss
Our model55.6%
The market67.6%
Edge
-12.0
Odds
1.48

Draw No Bet

Penarol (DNB)

Miss
Our model49.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-8.1
Odds
1.75

Correct Score

Score: 0-1

Edge +1.6%
Our model12.6%
The market11.0%
Edge
+1.6
Odds
9.13

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

0-1

12.6% · actual

1-0

11.8%

1-1

10.9%

We called 1 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.