Primera División · 1 August 2026AI PICK
Penarolvs
Cerro Largo
3 - 0Full time · 2 of 4 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off
- Model said
- 55.5%
- Market said
- 55.4%
- Edge
- +0.1 pts
- Best odds
- 1.75
The call, locked before kick-off
CloseUnder 2.5 Goals
Goals Over/Under · best price 1.75
The market underrated this by 0.1 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.
What the model saw
Close match - low confidence
How the two sides compared
Penarol
Cerro Largo
Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.
Every market we called
2 of 4 right, 1 close
Goals Over/Under
Under 2.5 Goals
- Edge
- +0.1
- Odds
- 1.75
Draw No Bet
Penarol (DNB)
- Edge
- -2.6
- Odds
- 1.75
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: Yes
- Edge
- +7.8
- Odds
- 2.11
Double Chance
1X (Home or Draw)
- Edge
- -40.9
- Odds
- 1.08
Match Winner
Penarol Win
- Edge
- -29.2
- Odds
- 1.48
Correct Score
Score: 1-0
- Edge
- -1.4
- Odds
- 9.65
Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.
Most likely scorelines
Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.
1-0
9.0%
1-1
14.5%
0-0
9.9%
We called 2 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.
Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.