Primera División RFEF - Group 1 badgePrimera División RFEF - Group 1 · 19 April 2026AI PICK

Ponferradina badgePonferradinavsBarakaldo badgeBarakaldo

1 - 0
Miss

Full time · 3 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
60.4%
Market said
47.6%
Edge
+12.8 pts
Best odds
2.10

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 2.10

MediumEdge +12.8%
Our model60.4%
The market47.6%

The market underrated this by 12.8 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Ponferradina badge

Ponferradina

Attack53
Defence100
Form67
Barakaldo badge

Barakaldo

Attack61
Defence69
Form62

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +8.1%Correct
Our model85.0%
The market76.9%
Edge
+8.1
Odds
1.30

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +12.8%Miss
Our model60.4%
The market47.6%
Edge
+12.8
Odds
2.10

Match Winner

Ponferradina Win

Edge +6.3%Correct
Our model56.3%
The market50.0%
Edge
+6.3
Odds
2.00

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +13.2%Miss
Our model55.2%
The market42.0%
Edge
+13.2
Odds
2.38

Draw No Bet

Ponferradina (DNB)

Correct
Our model49.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-8.1
Odds
1.75

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.