Primera División - Apertura · 18 July 2026AI PICK
Progresovs
Deportivo Maldonado
1 - 0Full time · 0 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off
- Model said
- 55.8%
- Market said
- 47.5%
- Edge
- +8.3 pts
- Best odds
- 2.10
The call, locked before kick-off
MissOver 2.5 Goals
Goals Over/Under · best price 2.10
The market underrated this by 8.3 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.
What the model saw
Moderate prediction - medium confidence
How the two sides compared
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.
Every market we called
0 of 5 right
Double Chance
X2 (Draw or Away)
- Edge
- -8.4
- Odds
- 1.20
Draw No Bet
Deportivo Maldonado (DNB)
- Edge
- +0.8
- Odds
- 1.75
Goals Over/Under
Over 2.5 Goals
- Edge
- +8.3
- Odds
- 2.10
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: Yes
- Edge
- +3.4
- Odds
- 1.91
Match Winner
Deportivo Maldonado Win
- Edge
- -13.0
- Odds
- 1.83
Correct Score
Score: 0-2
- Edge
- -1.6
- Odds
- 7.97
Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.
Most likely scorelines
Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.
0-2
10.9%
1-1
12.3%
0-1
10.7%
We called 0 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.
Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.