FA Cup badgeFA Cup · 15 May 2026AI PICK

Qingdao Red Lions badgeQingdao Red LionsvsNanjing City badgeNanjing City

1 - 0
Correct

Full time · 5 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
73.9%
Market said
63.7%
Edge
+10.2 pts
Best odds
1.57

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.57

High confidenceEdge +10.2%
Our model73.9%
The market63.7%

The market underrated this by 10.2 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Qingdao Red Lions badge

Qingdao Red Lions

Attack26
Defence75
Form30
Nanjing City badge

Nanjing City

Attack29
Defence85
Form46

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

5 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +8.1%Correct
Our model85.0%
The market76.9%
Edge
+8.1
Odds
1.30

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +10.2%Correct
Our model73.9%
The market63.7%
Edge
+10.2
Odds
1.57

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: No

Edge +7.4%Correct
Our model61.5%
The market54.1%
Edge
+7.4
Odds
1.85

Draw No Bet

Qingdao Red Lions (DNB)

Correct
Our model50.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-7.1
Odds
1.75

Match Winner

Qingdao Red Lions Win

Edge +15.5%Correct
Our model44.9%
The market29.4%
Edge
+15.5
Odds
3.40

Correct Score

Score: 0-1

Edge +2.2%Miss
Our model16.9%
The market14.7%
Edge
+2.2
Odds
6.81

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

0-1

16.9%

1-0

16.9% · actual

0-0

14.5%

We called 5 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.