Primera División - Apertura badgePrimera División - Apertura · 18 April 2026AI PICK

Racing Montevideo badgeRacing MontevideovsDefensor Sporting badgeDefensor Sporting

1 - 1
Miss

Full time · 2 of 3 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
67.8%
Market said
50.0%
Edge
+17.8 pts
Best odds
2.00

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Racing Montevideo Win

Match Winner · best price 2.00

MediumEdge +17.8%
Our model67.8%
The market50.0%

The market underrated this by 17.8 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Strong prediction - high confidence

How the two sides compared

Racing Montevideo badge

Racing Montevideo

Attack64
Defence62
Form69
Defensor Sporting badge

Defensor Sporting

Attack31
Defence84
Form44

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 3 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +11.5%
Our model85.0%
The market73.5%
Edge
+11.5
Odds
1.36

Match Winner

Racing Montevideo Win

Edge +17.8%Miss
Our model67.8%
The market50.0%
Edge
+17.8
Odds
2.00

Draw No Bet

Racing Montevideo (DNB)

Edge +5.9%Void
Our model63.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
+5.9
Odds
1.75

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Correct
Our model54.6%
The market66.7%
Edge
-12.1
Odds
1.50

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +0.9%Correct
Our model48.5%
The market47.6%
Edge
+0.9
Odds
2.10

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

We called 2 of 3 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.