Primera B · 9 May 2026AI PICK

Real CartagenavsUnion Magdalena

2 - 1

Correct

Full time · 3 of 3 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 69.2%
Market said: 48.1%
Edge: +21.1 pts
Best odds: 2.08

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.08

MediumEdge +21.1%

Our model69.2%

The market48.1%

The market underrated this by 21.1 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Real Cartagena

Attack70

Defence55

Form53

Union Magdalena

Attack88

Defence51

Form71

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 3 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +6.9%Correct

Our model85.0%

The market78.1%

Edge: +6.9
Odds: 1.28

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +21.1%Correct

Our model69.2%

The market48.1%

Edge: +21.1
Odds: 2.08

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +12.4%Correct

Our model66.5%

The market54.1%

Edge: +12.4
Odds: 1.85

Draw No Bet

Real Cartagena (DNB)

Our model48.0%

The market57.1%

Edge: -9.1
Odds: 1.75

Match Winner

Real Cartagena Win

Our model36.8%

The market50.0%

Edge: -13.2
Odds: 2.00

Correct Score

Score: 1-2

Edge +1.1%

Our model8.4%

The market7.3%

Edge: +1.1
Odds: 13.72

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-2

8.4%

1-1

7.5%

2-1

7.5% · actual

We called 3 of 3 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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