USL Championship badgeUSL Championship · 21 June 2026AI PICK

Sacramento Republic badgeSacramento RepublicvsNew Mexico United badgeNew Mexico United

0 - 1
Miss

Full time · 1 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
61.7%
Market said
54.6%
Edge
+7.1 pts
Best odds
1.83

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 1.83

MediumEdge +7.1%
Our model61.7%
The market54.6%

The market underrated this by 7.1 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Sacramento Republic badge

Sacramento Republic

Attack61
Defence75
Form58
New Mexico United badge

New Mexico United

Attack49
Defence47
Form53

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +5.0%Correct
Our model85.0%
The market80.0%
Edge
+5.0
Odds
1.25

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +7.1%Miss
Our model61.7%
The market54.6%
Edge
+7.1
Odds
1.83

Match Winner

Sacramento Republic Win

Edge +4.2%Miss
Our model61.3%
The market57.1%
Edge
+4.2
Odds
1.75

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +8.3%Miss
Our model59.6%
The market51.3%
Edge
+8.3
Odds
1.95

Draw No Bet

Sacramento Republic (DNB)

Miss
Our model56.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-1.1
Odds
1.75

Correct Score

Score: 1-0

Edge +1.3%
Our model9.7%
The market8.4%
Edge
+1.3
Odds
11.87

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-0

9.7%

2-1

9.5%

1-1

9.0%

We called 1 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.