Serie D badgeSerie D · 24 May 2026AI PICK

Sampaio Correa badgeSampaio CorreavsMoto Club badgeMoto Club

4 - 0
Miss

Full time · 3 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
65.9%
Market said
65.4%
Edge
+0.5 pts
Best odds
1.53

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.53

MediumEdge +0.5%
Our model65.9%
The market65.4%

The market underrated this by 0.5 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Sampaio Correa badge

Sampaio Correa

Attack56
Defence77
Form44
Moto Club badge

Moto Club

Attack50
Defence57
Form47

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +9.8%Correct
Our model85.0%
The market75.2%
Edge
+9.8
Odds
1.33

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +0.5%Miss
Our model65.9%
The market65.4%
Edge
+0.5
Odds
1.53

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +8.2%Miss
Our model55.8%
The market47.6%
Edge
+8.2
Odds
2.10

Draw No Bet

Sampaio Correa (DNB)

Correct
Our model54.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-3.1
Odds
1.75

Match Winner

Sampaio Correa Win

Edge +5.8%Correct
Our model52.3%
The market46.5%
Edge
+5.8
Odds
2.15

Correct Score

Score: 1-0

Edge +1.8%
Our model13.4%
The market11.6%
Edge
+1.8
Odds
8.59

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-0

13.4%

0-1

10.9%

1-1

10.7%

We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.