Serie A badgeSerie A · 23 May 2026AI PICK

Sao Paulo badgeSao PaulovsBotafogo badgeBotafogo

1 - 1
Correct

Full time · 1 of 4 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
60.9%
Market said
55.6%
Edge
+5.3 pts
Best odds
1.80

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 1.80

MediumEdge +5.3%
Our model60.9%
The market55.6%

The market underrated this by 5.3 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Sao Paulo badge

Sao Paulo

Attack43
Defence59
Form42
Botafogo badge

Botafogo

Attack73
Defence45
Form62

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 4 right, 1 close

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +9.8%Miss
Our model85.0%
The market75.2%
Edge
+9.8
Odds
1.33

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +5.3%Correct
Our model60.9%
The market55.6%
Edge
+5.3
Odds
1.80

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +9.5%Close
Our model59.5%
The market50.0%
Edge
+9.5
Odds
2.00

Draw No Bet

Botafogo (DNB)

Void
Our model43.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-14.1
Odds
1.75

Match Winner

Botafogo Win

Edge +15.8%Miss
Our model42.8%
The market27.0%
Edge
+15.8
Odds
3.70

Correct Score

Score: 0-1

Edge +1.3%
Our model10.1%
The market8.8%
Edge
+1.3
Odds
11.39

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

0-1

10.1%

1-2

9.8%

1-1

8.7% · actual

We called 1 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.