Serie D badgeSerie D · 9 May 2026AI PICK

Serra Branca badgeSerra BrancavsLagarto badgeLagarto

0 - 0
Miss

Full time · 0 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
62.4%
Market said
54.1%
Edge
+8.3 pts
Best odds
1.85

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 1.85

MediumEdge +8.3%
Our model62.4%
The market54.1%

The market underrated this by 8.3 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Serra Branca badge

Serra Branca

Attack62
Defence50
Form51
Lagarto badge

Lagarto

Attack73
Defence38
Form45

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

0 of 4 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +13.6%Miss
Our model85.0%
The market71.4%
Edge
+13.6
Odds
1.40

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +8.3%Miss
Our model62.4%
The market54.1%
Edge
+8.3
Odds
1.85

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +7.1%Miss
Our model59.7%
The market52.6%
Edge
+7.1
Odds
1.90

Match Winner

Serra Branca Win

Edge +2.3%Miss
Our model52.3%
The market50.0%
Edge
+2.3
Odds
2.00

Draw No Bet

Serra Branca (DNB)

Void
Our model49.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-8.1
Odds
1.75

Correct Score

Score: 1-1

Edge +1.2%Miss
Our model9.2%
The market8.0%
Edge
+1.2
Odds
12.51

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-1

9.2%

0-1

8.8%

1-2

8.6%

We called 0 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.