Serie D · 16 May 2026AI PICK

Serra BrancavsTreze

1 - 2

Correct

Full time · 3 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 62.1%
Market said: 50.0%
Edge: +12.1 pts
Best odds: 2.00

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 2.00

MediumEdge +12.1%

Our model62.1%

The market50.0%

The market underrated this by 12.1 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Serra Branca

Attack57

Defence49

Form47

Treze

Attack77

Defence43

Form52

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +8.1%Correct

Our model85.0%

The market76.9%

Edge: +8.1
Odds: 1.30

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +12.1%Correct

Our model62.1%

The market50.0%

Edge: +12.1
Odds: 2.00

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +16.1%Correct

Our model59.6%

The market43.5%

Edge: +16.1
Odds: 2.30

Match Winner

Serra Branca Win

Edge +4.4%Miss

Our model47.9%

The market43.5%

Edge: +4.4
Odds: 2.30

Draw No Bet

Serra Branca (DNB)

Miss

Our model46.0%

The market57.1%

Edge: -11.1
Odds: 1.75

Correct Score

Score: 0-1

Edge +1.2%

Our model9.3%

The market8.1%

Edge: +1.2
Odds: 12.41

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

0-1

9.3%

1-1

9.1%

1-2

9.1% · actual

We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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