First League badgeFirst League · 25 April 2026AI PICK

Spartak Kostroma badgeSpartak KostromavsArsenal Tula badgeArsenal Tula

1 - 1
Miss

Full time · 2 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
57.5%
Market said
50.0%
Edge
+7.5 pts
Best odds
2.00

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Spartak Kostroma Win

Match Winner · best price 2.00

MediumEdge +7.5%
Our model57.5%
The market50.0%

The market underrated this by 7.5 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Spartak Kostroma badge

Spartak Kostroma

Attack55
Defence38
Form33
Arsenal Tula badge

Arsenal Tula

Attack49
Defence51
Form45

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 4 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +9.8%Miss
Our model85.0%
The market75.2%
Edge
+9.8
Odds
1.33

Match Winner

Spartak Kostroma Win

Edge +7.5%Miss
Our model57.5%
The market50.0%
Edge
+7.5
Odds
2.00

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +3.7%Correct
Our model55.8%
The market52.1%
Edge
+3.7
Odds
1.92

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Correct
Our model54.5%
The market60.2%
Edge
-5.7
Odds
1.66

Draw No Bet

Spartak Kostroma (DNB)

Void
Our model54.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-3.1
Odds
1.75

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

We called 2 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.