First League · 12 July 2026AI PICK

Spartak KostromavsKAMAZ

3 - 1

Correct

Full time · 3 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 62.0%
Market said: 47.7%
Edge: +14.3 pts
Best odds: 2.03

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.03

MediumEdge +14.3%

Our model62.0%

The market47.7%

The market underrated this by 14.3 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Spartak Kostroma

Attack47

Defence75

Form44

KAMAZ

Attack70

Defence68

Form63

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +0.1%Correct

Our model74.2%

The market74.1%

Edge: +0.1
Odds: 1.35

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +14.3%Correct

Our model62.0%

The market47.7%

Edge: +14.3
Odds: 2.03

Draw No Bet

KAMAZ (DNB)

Edge +3.1%Miss

Our model60.2%

The market57.1%

Edge: +3.1
Odds: 1.75

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +3.6%Correct

Our model58.5%

The market54.9%

Edge: +3.6
Odds: 1.75

Match Winner

KAMAZ Win

Edge +11.1%Miss

Our model41.8%

The market30.7%

Edge: +11.1
Odds: 3.26

Correct Score

Score: 1-2

Miss

Our model8.8%

The market10.1%

Edge: -1.3
Odds: 9.90

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-2

8.8%

1-1

9.5%

2-2

7.0%

We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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