Serie D · 17 May 2026AI PICK

Tuna LusovsÁguia de Marabá

2 - 1

Correct

Full time · 3 of 3 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 62.3%
Market said: 54.6%
Edge: +7.7 pts
Best odds: 1.83

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 1.83

MediumEdge +7.7%

Our model62.3%

The market54.6%

The market underrated this by 7.7 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Tuna Luso

Attack54

Defence37

Form43

Águia de Marabá

Attack86

Defence39

Form67

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 3 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +8.1%Correct

Our model85.0%

The market76.9%

Edge: +8.1
Odds: 1.30

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +7.7%Correct

Our model62.3%

The market54.6%

Edge: +7.7
Odds: 1.83

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +15.1%Correct

Our model61.6%

The market46.5%

Edge: +15.1
Odds: 2.15

Draw No Bet

Tuna Luso (DNB)

Our model44.0%

The market57.1%

Edge: -13.1
Odds: 1.75

Match Winner

Tuna Luso Win

Our model35.9%

The market41.7%

Edge: -5.8
Odds: 2.40

Correct Score

Score: 1-2

Edge +1.3%Miss

Our model9.6%

The market8.3%

Edge: +1.3
Odds: 12.02

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-2

9.6%

0-1

9.3%

1-1

8.6%

We called 3 of 3 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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