Segunda Liga badgeSegunda Liga · 28 August 2026AI PICK

União de Leiria badgeUnião de LeiriavsTondela badgeTondela

2 - 0
Correct

Full time · 5 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
54.0%
Market said
49.3%
Edge
+4.7 pts
Best odds
1.98

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Both Teams To Score: No

Both Teams To Score · best price 1.98

LowEdge +4.7%
Our model54.0%
The market49.3%

The market underrated this by 4.7 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

União de Leiria badge

União de Leiria

Attack69
Defence36
Form33
Tondela badge

Tondela

Attack41
Defence42
Form37

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

5 of 5 right

Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw)

Edge +6.3%Correct
Our model79.8%
The market73.5%
Edge
+6.3
Odds
1.36

Draw No Bet

União de Leiria (DNB)

Edge +16.6%Correct
Our model71.2%
The market54.6%
Edge
+16.6
Odds
1.83

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: No

Edge +4.7%Correct
Our model54.0%
The market49.3%
Edge
+4.7
Odds
1.98

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Correct
Our model53.8%
The market57.4%
Edge
-3.6
Odds
1.67

Match Winner

União de Leiria Win

Edge +6.9%Correct
Our model50.0%
The market43.1%
Edge
+6.9
Odds
2.32

Correct Score

Score: 1-0

Close
Our model11.2%
The market12.9%
Edge
-1.7
Odds
7.78

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-0

11.2%

1-1

12.9%

2-0

10.8% · actual

We called 5 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.