Primera División · 14 August 2026AI PICK

Universidad de ConcepcionvsD. La Serena

0 - 2

Correct

Full time · 4 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 53.7%
Market said: 50.1%
Edge: +3.6 pts
Best odds: 2.05

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.05

LowEdge +3.6%

Our model53.7%

The market50.1%

The market underrated this by 3.6 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Universidad de Concepcion

Attack35

Defence40

Form21

D. La Serena

Attack51

Defence33

Form29

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

4 of 5 right

Double Chance

X2 (Draw or Away)

Edge +8.4%Correct

Our model72.1%

The market63.7%

Edge: +8.4
Odds: 1.57

Draw No Bet

D. La Serena (DNB)

Edge +4.9%Correct

Our model62.0%

The market57.1%

Edge: +4.9
Odds: 1.75

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +3.6%Correct

Our model53.7%

The market50.1%

Edge: +3.6
Odds: 2.05

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Miss

Our model52.8%

The market57.8%

Edge: -5.0
Odds: 1.62

Match Winner

D. La Serena Win

Edge +6.7%Correct

Our model43.1%

The market36.4%

Edge: +6.7
Odds: 2.75

Correct Score

Score: 0-1

Our model9.6%

The market11.0%

Edge: -1.4
Odds: 9.10

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

0-1

9.6%

1-1

13.9%

1-2

9.2%

We called 4 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

Get the app See the full track record