Serie A badgeSerie A · 16 July 2026AI PICK

Vitoria badgeVitoriavsVasco DA Gama badgeVasco DA Gama

1 - 0
Miss

Full time · 2 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
57.7%
Market said
53.6%
Edge
+4.1 pts
Best odds
1.80

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 1.80

MediumEdge +4.1%
Our model57.7%
The market53.6%

The market underrated this by 4.1 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Vitoria badge

Vitoria

Attack75
Defence45
Form60
Vasco DA Gama badge

Vasco DA Gama

Attack53
Defence48
Form47

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 4 right

Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw)

Edge +0.7%
Our model74.2%
The market73.5%
Edge
+0.7
Odds
1.36

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +4.1%Miss
Our model57.7%
The market53.6%
Edge
+4.1
Odds
1.80

Draw No Bet

Vitoria (DNB)

Correct
Our model56.8%
The market57.1%
Edge
-0.3
Odds
1.75

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +8.6%Miss
Our model55.4%
The market46.8%
Edge
+8.6
Odds
2.05

Match Winner

Vitoria Win

Correct
Our model41.6%
The market42.6%
Edge
-1.0
Odds
2.35

Correct Score

Score: 2-1

Miss
Our model9.3%
The market10.7%
Edge
-1.4
Odds
9.32

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

2-1

9.3%

1-1

9.6%

3-1

6.8%

We called 2 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.