First NL badgeFirst NL · 5 September 2026AI PICK

Vukovar badgeVukovarvsHNK Cibalia badgeHNK Cibalia

1 - 1
Close

Full time · 1 of 3 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
58.6%
Market said
49.8%
Edge
+8.8 pts
Best odds
2.01

The call, locked before kick-off

Close

Over 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.01

MediumEdge +8.8%
Our model58.6%
The market49.8%

The market underrated this by 8.8 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Vukovar badge

Vukovar

Attack84
Defence84
Form67
HNK Cibalia badge

HNK Cibalia

Attack56
Defence72
Form67

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 3 right, 1 close

Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw)

Our model75.2%
The market80.6%
Edge
-5.4
Odds
1.24

Draw No Bet

Vukovar (DNB)

Edge +4.6%Void
Our model67.5%
The market62.9%
Edge
+4.6
Odds
1.59

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +8.8%Close
Our model58.6%
The market49.8%
Edge
+8.8
Odds
2.01

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Correct
Our model53.3%
The market55.6%
Edge
-2.3
Odds
1.80

Match Winner

Vukovar Win

Edge +2.1%Miss
Our model51.6%
The market49.5%
Edge
+2.1
Odds
2.02

Correct Score

Score: 2-1

Miss
Our model8.1%
The market9.3%
Edge
-1.2
Odds
10.75

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

2-1

8.1%

3-1

7.3%

1-1

6.8% · actual

We called 1 of 3 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.