Primera División - Apertura badgePrimera División - Apertura · 26 April 2026AI PICK

Wanderers badgeWanderersvsPenarol badgePenarol

1 - 0
Miss

Full time · 2 of 3 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
55.2%
Market said
45.5%
Edge
+9.7 pts
Best odds
2.20

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 2.20

MediumEdge +9.7%
Our model55.2%
The market45.5%

The market underrated this by 9.7 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Wanderers badge

Wanderers

Attack37
Defence34
Form31
Penarol badge

Penarol

Attack60
Defence55
Form57

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 3 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +6.9%Correct
Our model85.0%
The market78.1%
Edge
+6.9
Odds
1.28

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +9.7%Miss
Our model55.2%
The market45.5%
Edge
+9.7
Odds
2.20

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Correct
Our model54.5%
The market58.8%
Edge
-4.3
Odds
1.70

Draw No Bet

Wanderers (DNB)

Our model43.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-14.1
Odds
1.75

Match Winner

Wanderers Win

Our model33.0%
The market50.0%
Edge
-17.0
Odds
2.00

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

We called 2 of 3 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.